As the aviation market and passenger forecasts continue on a path of growth and the demand for air travel doubles over the next twenty years, the biggest demand will be in the Asia-Pacific region.
Based on the latest figures released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the United States will remain the largest air passenger market until around 2030, when it will drop to second, behind China. These estimates indicate that the US will carry 18.3 billion more passengers and China 16.9 billion over the next 20 years.
Currently the ninth largest market, India will see a total of 367 million passenger movements by 2034, an increase of 266 million annual passengers compared to today and will overtake the United Kingdom (148 million extra passengers, total market 337 million) to become the 3rd largest market around 2031.
Reflecting a declining and aging population, Japanese air passenger numbers will grow just 1.3% per year and decline from the 4th largest market in 2014 to the 9th largest by 2033.
Germany and Spain will decline from 5th and 6th position in 2014 to be the 8th and 7th largest markets respectively. France will fall from 7th to 10th while Italy will fall out of the top 10 altogether around 2019.
Brazil will increase passenger numbers by 170 million and rise from 10th to 5th. Its total market will be 272 million passengers.
Indonesia will enter the top ten around 2020 and attain 6th place by 2029. By 2034 it will be a market of 270 million passengers.
IATA’s long-term forecasts are prepared for passenger and freight traffic and aircraft movements and their related parameters to support planning in airport, airline, air navigation and other aviation sectors.