Approved by and published under the authority of the Secretary GeneralINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATIONDoc 10084Risk Assessment Manual for Civil Aircraft Operations Over or Near Conflict ZonesSecond Edition, 2018Approved by and published under the authority of the Secretary GeneralINTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATIONDoc 10084Risk Assessment Manual for Civil Aircraft Operations Over or Near Conflict ZonesSecond Edition, 2018 Published in separate English, Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian and Spanish editions by the INTERNATIONAL CIVIL AVIATION ORGANIZATION 999 Robert-Bourassa Boulevard, Montréal, Quebec, Canada H3C 5H7 For ordering information and for a complete listing of sales agents and booksellers, please go to the ICAO website at www.icao.int First edition, 2017 Second edition, 2018 Doc 10084, Risk Assessment Manual for Civil Aircraft Operations Over or Near Conflict Zones Order Number: 10084 ISBN 978-92-9258-458-0 © ICAO 2018 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without prior permission in writing from the International Civil Aviation Organization. (iii) AMENDMENTS Amendments are announced in the supplements to the Products and Services Catalogue; the Catalogue and its supplements are available on the ICAO website at www.icao.int. The space below is provided to keep a record of such amendments. RECORD OF AMENDMENTS AND CORRIGENDA AMENDMENTS CORRIGENDA No. Date Entered by No. Date Entered by (v) TABLE OF CONTENTS Page History and related work in progress ........................................................................................................... (vii) Glossary ....................................................................................................................................................... (xi) Related ICAO publications ............................................................................................................................. (xv) Chapter 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 Purpose and scope ........................................................................................................................ 1-1 Chapter 2. Risks to civil aircraft from operations over or near conflict zones ....................................... 2-1 2.1 Surface-to-air missiles — capability and proliferation ..................................................................... 2-1 2.2 The historic threat to civil aviation .................................................................................................. 2-1 2.3 The risk of intentional attack ........................................................................................................... 2-2 2.4 The risk of unintentional attack ....................................................................................................... 2-2 2.5 Air-to-air attacks ............................................................................................................................. 2-3 Chapter 3. Roles of parties concerned and promulgation of information ............................................... 3-1 3.1 The State that manages the airspace ............................................................................................. 3-1 3.2 Aircraft operator .............................................................................................................................. 3-2 3.3 Air navigation service provider ....................................................................................................... 3-3 3.4 State of the Operator ...................................................................................................................... 3-4 3.5 International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) ............................................................................. 3-4 3.6 Regional civil aviation authorities ................................................................................................... 3-5 3.7 Other stakeholders ......................................................................................................................... 3-6 3.8 Provision of aeronautical information.............................................................................................. 3-6 Chapter 4. Conducting risk assessment for flying over or near conflict zones ...................................... 4-1 4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 4-1 4.2 Risk assessment cycle ................................................................................................................... 4-2 4.3 Collection of relevant information ................................................................................................... 4-4 4.4 Threat analysis ............................................................................................................................... 4-5 4.5 Hazard identification ....................................................................................................................... 4-5 4.6 Risk assessment ............................................................................................................................ 4-5 4.7 The role of the State ....................................................................................................................... 4-7 Appendix A. Security risk assessment factors, information, sources, methodology and concept .............................................................................................................................. App A-1 Appendix B. Example of a safety risk assessment methodology ............................................................ App B-1 (vi) Risk Assessment Manual for Civil Aircraft Operations Over or Near Conflict Zones Page Appendix C. Differences between the guidance provided by States in the risk assessment process ..................................................................................................................... App C-1 Appendix D. Examples of how organizations or States share information between States, aircraft operators, and service providers for exchange and promulgation of information ...................... App D-1 ______________________ (vii) HISTORY AND RELATED WORK IN PROGRESS In response to the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17) on 17 July 2014, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) took several initiatives, the first of which was to host a special high-level meeting on 29 July 2014 with the Directors General of the Airports Council International (ACI), the Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation (CANSO), and the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This meeting issued a joint statement expressing both the strong condemnation of the use of weapons against a civil aircraft and support for establishing a senior-level task force to address issues related to the safety and security of civil aircraft in airspace flying over or near conflict zones. The Secretary General of ICAO established the Task Force on Risks to Civil Aviation arising from Conflict Zones (TF RCZ) to advise the Secretariat and, in turn, report to the ICAO Council. The TF RCZ developed a work programme with twelve objectives, including the establishment of a centralized system which would consolidate the available information related to conflict zones. The Second High-level Safety Conference (HLSC 2015), held from 2 to 5 February 2015 at ICAO Headquarters noted the progress and conclusions of the TF RCZ, endorsed its pilot projects and recommended the implementation of these objectives. During its 204th Session, the ICAO Council approved in principle an interim procedure for Member States to establish the Conflict Zone Information Repository (CZIR) as a tool to disseminate information related to risks to civil aviation arising from conflict zones. On 2 April 2015, the ICAO CZIR was launched. This document, initially drafted under the title Civil Aircraft Operations Over Conflict Zones (Restricted), and containing advice from the ICAO Aviation Security Panel Working Group on Threat and Risk (WGTR), was provided to the ICAO Secretariat in 2014 as a contribution to the work of the TF RCZ on the risks for civil aviation of flying over conflict zones at cruising altitudes. The document provided the basis for discussion of this subject at HLSC 2015 and covered the risks from both deliberate and unintentional attacks on civil aircraft. Civil Aircraft Operations Over Conflict Zones (Restricted) was first published in November 2016 and reissued in April 2017 as Doc 10084 (Restricted). The 26th Meeting of the Aviation Security Panel (AVSECP/26) held from 13 to 17 April 2015, considered actions taken by ICAO to review and mitigate the risks to civil aviation arising from conflict zones, including the WGTR’s advice, and recommended that ICAO disseminate the advice on the overall risks of overflying conflict zones in order to assist States and industry in making decisions on flying over or near conflict zones — a recommendation that was endorsed by the ICAO Council at the Fourth Meeting of its 205th Session on 15 June 2015. On 13 October 2015, the Dutch Safety Board published the MH17 Final Report of the accident investigation with safety recommendations to ICAO, IATA, ICAO Member States, and operators. The relevant safety recommendations are presented below. During the 25th AVSEC World Conference held from 25 to 27 October 2016, held jointly by IATA, ICAO and ACI, existing tools and mechanisms, as well as next generation systems, to share risk-based information relevant to the operation of civil aircraft, were presented. During its 209th Session, the ICAO Council noted that there had been significant progress on the part of States and industry in developing systems, separate from the CZIR, to share information concerning risks associated with operations over or near conflict zones. In considering these developments and noting the decline in the number of postings in the CZIR, the ICAO Council requested a comprehensive study be undertaken on the availability of tools and mechanisms developed by external entities to share risk-based information. As part of the study, ICAO, in partnership with CANSO, IATA and the International Business Aviation Council (IBAC), launched a survey to determine the Next >